As Oscar Wilde famously observed, there is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about. So it is that our attention here at Overreaction HQ is largely devoted to the endless debate among fan bases advocating for their teams and/or against others now that most of the college football regular season is in the books.
These arguments are fed by the weekly release of the College Football Playoff Committee rankings, which essentially mean nothing until the final bracket is determined. Though often tiresome, however, such discussions are also viewed as a feature rather than a bug, especially by those whose job it is to opine on the state of the sport. Yes, that includes us.
Here are the top five overreactions causing the most noise after Week 12.
The Big Ten is overrated.
The at-large pool for the 12-team field is limited to seven teams as currently constructed. It is largely accepted that three of those seven slots will go to Big Ten teams, barring some truly shocking results over the final two weeks. That will give the conference four playoff participants in all, including the eventual league champ.
Unsurprisingly, most of the loudest voices questioning the resumes of the projected Big Ten invitees are coming from SEC territory. We’ll address that league’s case in a moment. But we’ll say this much for the Big Ten foursome currently occupying 80% of the top five in the US LBM Coaches Poll. They’ve all avoided damaging losses against the conference’s mid- and bottom-tier teams.
We’ll also add this. One frequently heard argument runs along the lines of, for example, Alabama would absolutely be favored in a game against Indiana. Even if that were true, the committee does not consider that – at all. Oddsmakers set lines based upon public perception. Their purpose is not to predict the final margin but to equalize the wagers on both sides. The fact that underdogs frequently win outright anyway, so the notion that a team potentially being favored in a given matchup carries no weight in seeding or bracketing discussions.
The SEC is underrated
The more grounded argument from SEC advocates is its contenders have faced stiffer competition week-to-week and should get more credit for their tougher schedules, which will naturally produce more losses among the candidates as they knock each other off. But while it’s true that the SEC is deeper, the league also lacks a true juggernaut this season. There are a lot of very good teams, but none are so good that they can’t be picked off on a given day.
The real problem with the conference in the era of expansion is the champion might be determined by who it didn’t play rather than who it did. Texas and Texas A&M top the standings, and the winner of their head-to-head showdown in two weeks will earn a spot in the title game. But among the two-loss teams, the Longhorns have played only Georgia, and neither they nor the Aggies have faced Ole Miss, Tennessee or Alabama. The SEC is not the only conference with that issue, of course, but if conference titles continue to be valued in future playoff formats, leagues will need to take steps to assure that they truly crown their best team.
UP AND DOWN: Florida, Colorado lead Week 12 winners and losers
MISERY INDEX: Utah’s further flop leads disappointments from Week 12
BYU took the Big 12 down with it
Brigham Young’s loss to Kansas in the wee hours seems to have pushed the Big 12 a step closer to being a one-bid conference. It was getting close to that already to be honest, with the Cougars the only squad that might have had an at-large case had their lone loss occurred in the title game.
Furthermore, as we’ve addressed before, the eventual champ’s case for a first-round bye also took a hit. BYU might still be in the best position for that, but the Cougars must win out, and must also probably hope like heck that SMU wins the ACC to give them a non-conference win against another Power Four champion.
Louisville took the ACC down with it.
But the ACC took its own damaging loss thanks to the Cardinals’ fourth-quarter meltdown at lowly Stanford. The Louisville setback dealt collateral damage to the aforementioned SMU and Miami, while also making Clemson’s home loss to the Cardinals more of a resume stain.
The good news for the ACC is Miami’s earlier win against Florida has gained value, and Clemson has a chance to pick up another quality non-league result against South Carolina in a couple of weeks. Even so, an at-large berth seems like a long shot, and both the Big 12 and the ACC must hope their eventual winners don’t finish outside the top five FBS conference champions altogether (see last week’s Boise State plus Army scenario). Which brings us to …
The Notre Dame dilemma
Theoretically, if you’re a fan of a team with at-large aspirations, you should root for Army to upend Notre Dame this week to effectively remove the Irish from the pool, right? Well, yes, if your team is in a guaranteed multi-bid league. But if you’re still in the mix in the Big 12 or ACC, you might not want the Black Knights to run the table and possibly earn automatic inclusion along with Boise State.
If you want to make sure you don’t get squeezed out, you probably want Army to lose, either to the Irish or to Tulane in the American Athletic Conference finale. This might make you very unpopular at parties, but nothing is more important than your team, right?
Honestly, that might be the biggest overreaction of them all.
