Ohio State, Indiana headline teams that are a lock for College Football Playoff.
LSU, Penn State top jobs available, but good debate on which is better.
Survive and advance works fine for Alabama. Just survive.
We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming of firings, hot boards and rampant speculation of potential hires (call Urban!) to draw attention, if ever so briefly, to the College Football Playoff.
The first CFP rankings will be revealed next week, and the talking heads will bobble and squabble over the bubble, but a handful of teams already have done the heavy lifting, putting the hay in the barn for a bid. I need to get my hands on Seth Davis’ March Madness Sharpie marker, because I’m ready to lock in five teams for the playoff.
Here’s where my mind is after Week 9:
Five teams have ‘clinched’ College Football Playoff bids
Esteemed colleague Paul Myerberg recently noted he’s nearly ready to lock in five teams for the playoff: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi. I agree with his assessment in four of five cases. I’m not yet all-in on one of his playoff near-locks, but I’ve got a replacement lock ready for insertion.
Here are five teams I’m ready to Sharpie into the playoff:
Ohio State (7-0): Talk of dynasties being dead is premature. The Buckeyes are positioning themselves to join Georgia, Alabama and Southern California (including one USC shared championship) as the only teams to win back-to-back national titles since 1980. Who knows what’ll happen in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in the regular-season finale, but the Buckeyes aren’t losing twice in November.
Indiana (8-0): The Hoosiers’ win at Oregon, combined with their dominant average margin of victory, gives them plenty of cushion as they navigate the season’s final month. Smart money is on Indiana taking an undefeated record into the Big Ten Championship, but it’ll be in good shape even if it drops a game.
Texas A&M (8-0): If the first CFP rankings hinged on strength of record and strength of schedule, the Aggies would be No. 1 after road wins at Notre Dame and LSU. They’re left with three SEC games, plus one Championship Subdivision opponent. They might make the playoff with two losses. Better chance they’ll avoid drama and neatly navigate into the bracket.
Mississippi (7-1): The Rebels tout wins against Oklahoma and LSU, and the November schedule is a blessing, with no ranked opponents left. Dropping one more game would damage their seeding, but they’d likely qualify at 10-2. Three of their final four games are at home. They’re in great shape.
Notre Dame (5-2): The Irish can’t afford another loss. So, why am I ready to Sharpie them into the bracket? Because, they’ll enjoy an accommodating November schedule, courtesy of their independence. They finish with Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Stanford. Only Navy is ranked. That game is in South Bend. Remember what Notre Dame did to a ranked Army squad last season? Yep, the Irish are rolling toward 10-2, with close losses to Texas A&M and Miami in tow. The committee won’t be able to resist them.
Not ready to lock in … Oregon (7-1): The Ducks needed overtime to survive at Penn State, and that no longer looks like such a marquee win after the Nittany Lions soured. Oregon closes with four straight Big Ten opponents who are 5-3 overall or better. They could lose as soon as a Nov. 9 game at Iowa. Heck, they could lose twice. Oregon retains a good playoff chance, but landmines lurk in its path.
What’s the best job on the market?
It’s either LSU or Penn State. A lack of resources aren’t a problem at either school.
The case for Penn State: Don’t knock life in the Big Ten, where the wheat is more neatly separated from the chaff than it is in the SEC. Also, while some (like Nick Saban) choose to focus on how James Franklin got fired nine months after taking Penn State to the CFP semifinals, it’s also notable that Franklin got 12 seasons despite just one playoff berth. Imagine receiving such a long runway at LSU. The demands of both jobs are big. LSU’s demands are bigger, and the path to the playoff is easier at Penn State. A new hire could take Penn State back to the playoff in Year 1.
The case for LSU: Each of Brian Kelly’s three predecessors won a national championship. Make a strong hire, and LSU can celebrate another championship within four (or fewer) years. LSU is the only Power Four school in a talent-rich state. That’s an asset, even in this pay-for-play era. Kelly also signed the top-rated transfer class entering his final season, showing there’s money for talent. The literal politics of the job can be a quagmire (the governor became involved in firing Kelly), but you can’t knock the passion for the program, and LSU’s brand reaches from coast to coast.
Can Hugh Freeze escape hot seat at Auburn?
Difficult task, but perhaps not impossible. The four-game losing streak painted Freeze into a corner. Beating Arkansas was a must. So is beating Kentucky, up next. Topple Vanderbilt, too, and then maybe momentum builds for giving this one more go in 2026, not unlike what Florida did with Billy Napier last season. Never count out Auburn when the Iron Bowl is played on the Plains, either.
Freeze finally changed quarterbacks against Arkansas, benching Jackson Arnold — what took so long? — in favor of Ashton Daniels. Freeze must sow belief these next few weeks that he can solve yearslong offensive woes, if retained.
A crowded coaching carousel also might become Freeze’s friend. Does Auburn want to hire in a cycle when LSU, Penn State and Florida also are hiring?
How vulnerable is Alabama?
Are you glass half-full, or half-empty? I took it as an encouraging sign for Alabama that it rallied to win, 29-22, at South Carolina after playing with danger for three-plus quarters. This is the type of game last year’s team would’ve lost.
Look around the SEC. Gimme games are in short supply. Alabama’s reality is no different from that of Georgia, or others in the conference. The Tide’s wins against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee hold up well on the resumé. Three of the final four games are at home, where Kalen DeBoer has not lost. The Tide remain in good shape.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
