Texas Tech’s dominance over BYU damaged the Big 12’s shot at two bids. Vanderbilt stands to benefit.
The ACC is caving in on itself. That’s good for SMU.
Five playoff bids for the SEC? That’s in play.
Tired: Bemoaning that an unranked Group of Five team will snag a playoff spot.
Wired: Realizing the ACC doesn’t particularly deserve an auto bid, either.
When the new College Football Playoff rankings are unveiled, nobody from the 17-team ACC will be found within the top 12. Its presence in the playoff will be a byproduct of preseason bracket rules more than in-season merit.
Here’s my latest playoff bracket projection. Note: This is not a prediction of how this week’s rankings will look. It’s also not a modeling of how the bracket would look if the season ended today. Rather, I’m projecting forward. This reflects how I think the selections will look come selection Sunday in December.
1. Ohio State
Ryan Day labeled it a ‘business-like’ 34-10 victory against Purdue. That’s accurate. The Buckeyes are in the business of clubbing Big Ten opponents. You can question OSU’s schedule. Can’t question its performance against that schedule. Each of the Buckeyes’ past eight wins came by at least 18 points. Onward march.
2. Alabama
LSU’s season sank to such depths that Alabama’s two-score victory counts as more workmanlike than impressive. Alabama’s defense keeps improving, so that leaves the Tide’s meager ground game as the lingering flaw. Nobody’s flawless in the SEC, and Alabama continues its march toward a conference championship game clash with Texas A&M.
3. Indiana
Indiana is more battle-tested than last year’s Hoosiers. They won the battle against Penn State thanks to Omar Cooper Jr.’s great hops, good hands and a few blades of green grass being between his foot and the white chalk. Curt Cignetti, ever the showman, soaked up the triumph in his native state. A peek at Indiana’s schedule shows it almost certainly will remain undefeated into December.
4. Texas A&M
Mike Elko described Texas A&M’s run defense as ‘awful’ in a 38-17 smashing of Missouri. That gives the Aggies something to work on as they roll on as the SEC’s only undefeated team. Elko also expressed derision when a reporter referenced what happened to the Aggies last November. He’s rooted in the present, and the Aggies are following his lead, playing up to potential after years of fizzling.
5. Georgia
Georgia carried out its weekly routine of spotting an opponent a first-half lead before awakening and winning. This latest 41-21 win came with relative ease, though. The defense still doesn’t perform to the Kirby Smart standard, but the Bulldogs retain their winning genes, plus a steady-handed quarterback in Gunner Stockton. That counts for a lot.
6. Texas Tech
Big 12 football, not just a land for offense anymore. Booster Cody Campbell’s checkbook bought the best defense south of Big Ten land. The Red Raiders smashed Brigham Young in a battle for conference supremacy. The lopsided result damaged the Big 12’s chances at two playoff bids. The teams might meet again in the Big 12 championship, but why should that go any differently?
7. Mississippi
The Rebels enjoyed such a carefree win against overwhelmed The Citadel that Lane Kiffin amused himself by photobombing a couple’s on-field engagement proposal. (She said yes.) All smiles for Ole Miss. With fan bases from Florida to LSU pining for Kiffin, his Rebels keep rolling. Can this team keep the distractions at bay? So far, so good.
8. Oregon
The Ducks are so well-adjusted to the Big Ten they gave Iowa a masterclass on how to be Iowa. Oregon stole Kirk Ferentz’s theme music and won 18-16 in Iowa City. A safety on an errant punt snap provided the two-point difference. Oregon has a thorny runway to the playoff, but as long as its defense keeps this up, the Ducks will make the Big Ten a three-bid league.
9. Notre Dame
The CFP committee remains under the spell of Notre Dame’s helmet magic, placing the Irish eight spots ahead of Miami, even though the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame. So long as the Irish keep beating overmatched opponents, they’ll be in good shape for qualification. The resume might be a bit lacking, but the committee retains a brand bias.
10. Vanderbilt
Recency bias hurt the Commodores in the initial rankings. They checked in at No. 16, with the loss to Texas fresh on the brain. Vanderbilt’s metrics suggest it should have been a couple of spots higher. There’s time for the committee to reconsider — and for teams ahead of Vanderbilt to lose. Three already have. If the Commodores beat Kentucky and Tennessee to reach 10-2 with no bad losses, that’s a compelling pitch.
11. SMU
The ACC could have a three-loss champion turned playoff qualifier for the second straight season if SMU keeps winning. Duke gives the ACC a shot at a four-loss qualifier. And to think Tony Petitti wanted to give the ACC a second auto-bid. Excuse me? SMU got hot against Miami and stayed hot against Boston College. Keep it up, and it can win this league. Never mind its nonconference record.
12. South Florida
USF coach Alex Golesh didn’t care for Texas-San Antonio’s Jeff Traylor playing the pauper and noting the Bulls’ superior roster payroll, before their game. Golesh won’t apologize for his program’s resources, or for how the Bulls thumped Traylor’s team by 32 points. Golesh’s team looks the part of conference frontrunner within a league best positioned for the G5 bid.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
